MANILA, Philippines—Inflation in September as measured by the increase in the consumer price index may reach 12.6-12.7 percent and exceed the 17-year-high 12.5 percent in August, the central bank said Thursday, citing adverse effects of recent typhoons.
“Without the typhoons, inflation could have peaked in August, but because of the typhoons, that will really send prices higher, particularly of food,” Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo of the central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), said at a news briefing.
Guinigundo said the inflation rate would not reach 13 percent.
“There are other areas like Mindanao that were not affected by the typhoon,” he said. “Rice [prices] continues to go down. NFA [National Food Authority] continues to receive shipments of imported rice, bombarding key distribution outlets with more rice.”
“So it may rise to 12.6 percent or 12.7 percent [in September] and then decline afterward,” he said. “It won’t reach 13 percent. It’s losing steam.”
Investment bank DBS expects Philippine inflation to peak at 13 percent in October because of the lingering effects of the spike in oil and food prices in previous months.
“As has been the case globally, food and fuel prices are the only two things that have really mattered in the run-up in inflation, and indications now are that these trends are at least stabilizing, if not reversing,” DBS said in its latest assessment of the Philippine economy.
Global food and oil prices are easing but these will be felt only in November, it said.
The BSP expects to get a better picture of inflation when its policymaking Monetary Board meets on Oct. 9, Guinigundo said.
He said the policymakers would continue to keep an eye out for global oil prices even if recent trends were favorable.
The Philippines has an oil inventory enough for 70 days on average, Guinigundo said. That would be until November.
Guinigundo added that the high season for money remittances from overseas Filipino workers would begin in November and give the country enough foreign exchange to buffer global oil price volatility.
Analysts expect the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rates further, by as much as half a percentage point this year to fight high inflation despite a sluggish first-semester economic growth.
“Without the typhoons, inflation could have peaked in August, but because of the typhoons, that will really send prices higher, particularly of food,” Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo of the central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), said at a news briefing.
Guinigundo said the inflation rate would not reach 13 percent.
“There are other areas like Mindanao that were not affected by the typhoon,” he said. “Rice [prices] continues to go down. NFA [National Food Authority] continues to receive shipments of imported rice, bombarding key distribution outlets with more rice.”
“So it may rise to 12.6 percent or 12.7 percent [in September] and then decline afterward,” he said. “It won’t reach 13 percent. It’s losing steam.”
Investment bank DBS expects Philippine inflation to peak at 13 percent in October because of the lingering effects of the spike in oil and food prices in previous months.
“As has been the case globally, food and fuel prices are the only two things that have really mattered in the run-up in inflation, and indications now are that these trends are at least stabilizing, if not reversing,” DBS said in its latest assessment of the Philippine economy.
Global food and oil prices are easing but these will be felt only in November, it said.
The BSP expects to get a better picture of inflation when its policymaking Monetary Board meets on Oct. 9, Guinigundo said.
He said the policymakers would continue to keep an eye out for global oil prices even if recent trends were favorable.
The Philippines has an oil inventory enough for 70 days on average, Guinigundo said. That would be until November.
Guinigundo added that the high season for money remittances from overseas Filipino workers would begin in November and give the country enough foreign exchange to buffer global oil price volatility.
Analysts expect the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rates further, by as much as half a percentage point this year to fight high inflation despite a sluggish first-semester economic growth.
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